The fuel anxiety worsens day by day as Iraq has shut production at Rumaila, its largest oil field, after regional strikes linked to Iran and the wider disruption around the Strait of Hormuz tightened tanker availability at Iraq’s southern export terminals.
Rumaila had been producing about 1.5 million barrels per day, and the shutdown removes roughly 36 percent of Iraq’s total output.
Iraq has also suspended crude exports via the Ceyhan pipeline route, which normally carries northern crude to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast and offers a partial bypass of Hormuz.
The pipeline’s capacity is about 1.2 million barrels per day, and a halt would risk cutting flows to European buyers.
How the Strait of Hormuz is important to Iraq
Reuters reports Iraq has already cut production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, and officials warned reductions could widen if tankers cannot move freely through Hormuz and storage fills up at southern ports.
As supply risks rose, Brent crude moved above $80 per barrel, highlighting how quickly a “war premium” gets priced in when shipping lanes and export terminals are under pressure.
What it could mean for fuel prices in Pakistan
For Pakistani motorists, the immediate worry is another round of volatility feeding into the next pricing cycle. PakWheels’ latest tracker shows petrol at Rs. 266.17 per litre and high-speed diesel at Rs. 280.86 per litre effective March 1, 2026.
Pakistan’s pump prices depend on several moving parts (international crude, freight and insurance costs, exchange rates, and taxes), but prolonged disruptions to Gulf shipping often push costs higher across the board.
If global prices remain elevated, transport and delivery costs can rise, which tends to ripple through logistics-heavy sectors that keep the auto economy moving.
What to watch next
The key next step is whether Iraq can restore tanker access and restart exports, and whether the Ceyhan route resumes. Markets will also watch for any official updates from Iraq’s oil ministry and for signs that shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz are stabilizing.
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