Rs. 50/Liter Subsidy on Petrol – How Will it Work?
Yesterday, the government announced Rs.50/liter subsidy on petrol for motorcyclists, rickshaw drivers, and cars with 800cc engines. As per the government, this new subsidy scheme for a lower-income segment of society would be implemented after six weeks. This is not the first time such a scheme has been announced but has not seen the light of day, but apparently, there is a mechanism under discussion to make it work this time.
As per the economist Ali Khizar, the government is planning to implement it by using data sets from NADRA, phone companies, and vehicle ownership documents. “Bike, rikshaw, and small car beneficiary to be registered having phone and vehicle registered under the same name.
Implementation mechanics
Using data sets of NADRA, phone companies & vehicle ownership, bike/rikshaw/small car beneficiary is to be registered having phone and vehicle registered under same name (considerations are for extending it to NADRA family tree)
— Ali khizar (@AliKhizar) March 20, 2023
Further explaining, he wrote the users to get this benefit each time through a one-time password (OTP), have this on the machine at petrol pump, and get their quota. For bikers, the monthly maximum limit is 21 liters, the average monthly consumption per PSO data, and the 24-hour cap for bikers will be 3 liters. Moreover, the monthly cap for small cars will be 30 liters.
User to get benefit each time through one time password (OTP) – have this on machine at petrol pump and get its quota
bikes cap 21 L/month (avg monthly consumption -PSO data)
Maximum 3 L benefit in 24 hoursSmall Car cap 30 L/month (1/3rd of monthly consumption)
— Ali khizar (@AliKhizar) March 20, 2023
He believes that this scheme is doable to some extent. However, it raises some questions, i.e., why do car users cross-subsidize bikers? Why do the rich and middle class provide for low-income? Are there any legal hitches?
It is doable to some extend
Questions
Why car user to cross subsidize bikers? Same argument is true for electricity and gas – why rich and middle class to provide for low income?Are there any legal hitches ?
— Ali khizar (@AliKhizar) March 20, 2023
The economist thinks that this policy would encourage higher bike usage versus cars, leading to less fuel consumption per kilometer which is good. But the subsidy can become insufficient if bike and small car usage exceed 50%.
This policy to encourage higher bike usage versus car – this would mean less fuel consumed per Km – good
The cross subsidy can become insufficient provided bike/small usage to exceed 50% (currently at 51% including small cars' one tank – 1.3mn out 4mn cars are below 800cc )
— Ali khizar (@AliKhizar) March 20, 2023
As per Khizar, the mechanism will be revised every 15 days, and the cross-subsidy amount will be adjusted downwards to balance the books. “This policy is under consideration, and the ministry has asked for six weeks to streamline the modalities,” he concluded.
The mechanism to revise every 15 days and the cross subsidy amount to adjust downwards to balance the books
PS: This policy is under consideration and the ministry has asked for six weeks to streamline the modalities. Suggestions can be incorporated.
— Ali khizar (@AliKhizar) March 20, 2023
Proposed Process
According to an official presentation, the government and petrol pumps will follow the following process to provide subsidy on petrol for masses.
IMF & Subsidy on Petrol
The federal government is still in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release the next loan installment. The global lender has set multiple conditions during the negotiations, including imposing Rs. 50 petroleum levy on fuel products. The talks have focused on more taxes to collect revenue; the mini-budget was one of the steps by the government to fulfill IMF requirements.
However, this new proposed subsidy could dent ongoing talks as IMF stated that the Pakistan government did not consult with them before announcing it. “We are seeking more details on the scheme in terms of its operation, cost, targeting, protections against fraud and abuse, and offsetting measures, and will carefully discuss these elements with Islamabad,” IMF’s lender resident Esther Perez Ruis told a local English newspaper.
As mentioned earlier, the unfunded and untargeted subsidies are frowned upon by IMF, which advocates scaling up the protection for the most vulnerable.
What is your take on this subsidy on petrol? Would it work? Please share your thoughts in the comments section.