Selling Cheap Petrol To Harm Our Economy – Top Economist
Last week, the Pakistan government reduced the petrol price by Rs. 12/liter taking it down to Rs. 270 from Rs. 282/liter. The decision, on its face value, seemed a good one as it gave a much-deserving relief to the inflation-hit masses of the country, but is it actually the right decision? Top global economist Atif Mian has discussed this issue in a detailed Twitter thread where he compared Pakistan’s current economic situation with countries with a similar or worse position, Ghana and Sri Lanka. The economist compared the currency devaluation and current petrol prices in these three countries.
In his first tweet, Mian wrote Ghana and Sri Lanka formally defaulted during the last two years; Pakistan did not, but the currency was devalued by 1/2 for both Pakistan and Ghana and 1/3rd for Sri Lanka.
A 🧵comparing Ghana, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and what it teaches us about dealing with crises …
Ghana and Sri Lanka formally defaulted during the last two years, Pakistan did not
but currency devalued by 1/2 for both Pakistan and Ghana, and 1/3rd for Sri Lanka
— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) May 24, 2023
He added that Pakistan’s currency has devalued significantly more than Sri Lanka’s. “More importantly, let’s compare Pakistan’s trajectory with that of SL and Ghana after they default; here is Sri Lanka, the red arrow starts post-default,” he wrote.
So Pak currency has devalued significantly more than SL's
More importantly, let's compare Pakistan's trajectory with that of SL and Ghana after they default …
here is SL, the red arrow starts post-default pic.twitter.com/cTCLyWzzzo
— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) May 24, 2023
Then he shared the trajectory of currency of Ghana. He mentioned that both Ghana and Sri Lanka currencies have stabilized after default as they entered restructuring programs.
And here is Ghana
Notice how both Ghana and SL currencies have stabilized post-default as they entered restructuring programs pic.twitter.com/V3VGWk1Xki
— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) May 24, 2023
Then the economist showed Pakistan’s currency, concluding “there is no end in sight” before he discussed the lesson.
Now, let's look at Pakistan – the red arrow points to the downward trajectory over the two years, and it continues to go down
*there is no end in sight*
What's the lesson? pic.twitter.com/hTJTvlY8k3
— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) May 24, 2023
“To thump your chest and say “see we have not defaulted” means nothing if you continue to ignore the underlying crisis,” he asserted, adding that incompetence is here a serious issue, and then he gave the example of petrol price in these three countries.
To thump your chest and say "see we have not defaulted" means nothing if you continue to ignore the underlying crisis
The only thing worse than indecisiveness in the face of a crisis is incompetence
One example:
— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) May 24, 2023
Petrol Price and Economy
He mentioned that Pakistan is currently selling petrol at a price that is 20-25% below the price it is sold in Ghana and Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. “At the same time, the government is restricting imports of raw materials needed for production and export,” he said.
For a brief comparison, petrol price in Ghana is PKR. 324/liter, while Sri Lanka is selling 340/liter. In comparison, the price in Pakistan is Rs. 270/liter.
Pakistan is selling petrol at a price that is 20%-25% below the price it is sold in Ghana, Sri Lanka, India, or Bangladesh
At the same time, the government is restricting imports of raw materials needed for production and export
— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) May 24, 2023
Mian concluded his threat by writing: “In other words, the government would rather cut the country’s GDP in order to sell cheap petrol! But then lower GDP will make it more difficult to pay off the debt – leading to more devaluation – more misery – and higher petrol prices in terms of purchasing power.”
In other words, the government would rather cut the country's GDP in order to sell cheap petrol!
But then lower GDP will make it more difficult to pay off the debt – leading to more devaluation – more misery – and higher petrol prices in terms of purchasing power
— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) May 24, 2023
What is your take on Atif Mian’s take on petrol price and economy of Pakistan? Share your thoughts with us in the comments section.