I think they're pretty smart:
There's a reasonable market for SUVs under 5 million - as was established when JDM used Prado's were available at 4-5m.
They're already making the hilux and a lot of parts will be shared - they can lower the cost of many components
Companies requiring 4x4s either have to go for the hilux (which is a truck primarily meant for hauling stuff, thus not the best in comfort!) or spend an arm and a leg for an imported SUV
Government institutions, Armed Forces and other local and foreign agencies will be very interested
As for small cars, Suzuki has dominated the sector for decades, and JDM used imports are still very competitive. Not to say a market for a small toyota or diahstsu doesn't exist, but entering the SUV market is a no brainer.