CNG, Petrol, Power etc Some explaination

[fahadsoulsnatcher911]

nice share

[fahadsoulsnatcher911]

What's IPP? Sorry for being that naive.

Sent through Pro book GT-I65536

I believe is stands for independent power producers

[fahadwizz]

I believe is stands for independent power producers

Right! Like bin qasim which depends on zamzamma gas field.

Sadly in the coming years we will have to prepare for a much worse times. We just dont have enough power to meet the electricty demand. Not enough gas to continue ipps on gas and not enough dollars to continue importing increased qty of oil. It is where the bubble reAly bursts.

Going back to imf for dollars mean stringent tax policies and expensive credit rate. All bad for business!

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[Xulfiqar]

the general people will have to improvise themselves, start to carpool, its simply not workable for every single person to drive their own car to work in Pakistan. The authorities should get foriegn firms to bring in proper mass transit systems, foreign because Pakistan completely lacks such discipline in education and hence cannot deploy.

[shariqak1]

Still we can sort out the electricity shortage up to large extent by using Atomic Energy... Things like KANUPP are already working in the country!! Increasing its production capacity is indeed an important issue.

[saintdarko]

I doubt that CNG sector is using 4% of gas since it is the fastest growing sector & it is probably in double digit by now. P.S the data dates back to FY 2009-2010 since the person published this data in year 2011, research is always based on previous years data so i assume the author calculated pre 2011.

anyway, I agree that CNG is beneficial as in its cheaper than oil but we have to see how our gas resources going to work out in coming years. We have to prioritise the usage of gas since our reserves are depleting at a faster rate now.

It takes years to explore new gas fields & setting up of new infrastructure for supplying gas nor its easy to build newer dams. Bahsha dam will take minimum 10 years! nuclear plants are expensive to build & they take few years too! gas supply from Iran will not come till 2014 if agreement goes ahead & gas from central Asia will not come here before 2020! so my naive Pakistanis its not a piece of cake to make energy resource be available in abundance to us consumers within days or weeks, we have to be wise & sensible.

[talhawaleed]

I doubt that CNG sector is using 4% of gas since it is the fastest growing sector & it is probably in double digit by now. P.S the data dates back to FY 2009-2010 since the person published this data in year 2011, research is always based on previous years data so i assume the author calculated pre 2011.

anyway, I agree that CNG is beneficial as in its cheaper than oil but we have to see how our gas resources going to work out in coming years. We have to prioritise the usage of gas since our reserves are depleting at a faster rate now.

It takes years to explore new gas fields & setting up of new infrastructure for supplying gas nor its easy to build newer dams. Bahsha dam will take minimum 10 years! nuclear plants are expensive to build & they take few years too! gas supply from Iran will not come till 2014 if agreement goes ahead & gas from central Asia will not come here before 2020! so my naive Pakistanis its not a piece of cake to make energy resource be available in abundance to us consumers within days or weeks, we have to be wise & sensible.

So how do you define wisdom, once Petrol crises was their then government was trying to introduce CNG. once CNG crises is their then they are trying to introduce LPG and once LPG crises will come then they will throw people back on Petrol and again once they will have no way to go then they will start to kill each other, which in-fact has already started.

Get the gas pipe line from Iran, If gas supplies are depleting then let it deplete.

[talhawaleed]

Its been a while since the whole CNG fiasco started and i am sick and tired of reading ignorant comments by people who lack knowledge and fail to do a little bit of research on their own.

Kindly read this thread to enlighten yourself with some useful information about the natural gas and overall energy scenario in Pakistan.

Usage of CNG as automotive fuel in Pakistan began somewhere in mid 90s but really picked up during the start of 2000s. The primary reason of promoting CNG in vehicles was to curtail the demand of liquid gasoline or petrol and replace it by locally extracted natural gas. The reason is simple, we did not have enough dollars back then and we wanted to save whatever we had. We thought by switching over to CNG we will save significant amount of dollars reserves. Which we did and still do.

Surprising to many, the natural gas usage in the transportation sector accounts to only 4.6% of total usage so anyone who thinks that a ban on CNG would save the industry, they are highly mistaken. Most of the Gas (35.5%) goes to the power sector for the production of electricity through gas powered generators. Around 15.20% is used in stoves

Source: DEVELOPMENT OF UNCONVENTIONAL RESERVOIRS IN PAKISTAN By Dr. M. Saeed Khan Jadoon, OGDCL, Islamabad APRIL 11, 2011
Saving this 4.6% will not get us out of the gas fiasco but exploration of newer fields may. Pakistan still has plenty of un explored gas reserves unfortunately we lack the expertise and resources to extract that gas.The biggest chunk we can save is what goes to the power sector. If only we could construct the Kala Bagh dam it will save us from maintaining these very expensive IPPs which are famous for producing the most expensive electricity in the world.

Importing finished gasoline is very expensive and requires a strong FX reserve account. We currently have a total of 13.5 billion of dollar reserves out of which around 3 billion have to be returned to IMF and other agencies. The remaining will be barely enough to cover an year of import.

In the absence of Mass Transit System, people will continue to drive their cars be it on Gas,Petrol or diesel. It does not matter how expensive it gets, people will need to travel for work. Expensive fuel will have to be imported putting further pressure on depleting dollar reserves.
Karachi is the only city of its size in the world which does not have a Mass Transit System.

All those people who think fertilizer uses gas as a fuel are also mistaken. Gas is used as a raw material in preparation of fertilizer. There i no alternative here, fertilizer plants like Engro Fertilizers rely on pipeline quality gas from Sui. Engro has not been able to commence its new plant's operation because of shortage of gas but not because of cars but because of additional gas demands of the power industry. Some other fertilizer plants like Fatima Fert. use gas from Mari fields which is not pipeline quality and available in abundance. Currently its cheaper to import fertilizer than it is to import oil so the gas is diverted to power sector and fertilizer is being imported.

To sum up,

1. Natural gas resources are indeed depleting.
2. Only 4% goes to auto sector/ most gas is consumed by IPPs(35%) and Home users(16%).
3. Industry is suffering because of gas being diverted to power sector and NOT automobile
4. We may have low gas reserves but we have much lower and fast depleting Foreign Reserves. The consequences are much serious for the latter.
5. If you're not a CNG user, stop thinking that you are royal and doing this nation a favor. If you wan't to support, you may start by shutting down extra lights and air conditioners in your house.
6. Solution lies in
-Exploration of new resources
-Diversion of natural gas from power sector by replacing gas powered IPPs with hydel powered (will require dams), ---- --Introduce Mass transit system in bigger cities
-Construction of Pak-Iran gas pipeline.

I hope the above explanation is enough.

Apart from facts, to my understanding what I think that CNG and Petrol vehicles have become a sort of status symbol for many. Not having any knowledge regarding the advantage of one over another and why was it introduced on very first place, those who discourage think that it is meant for people who cannot afford.

[changwani54]

Any idea about the rumor that big fishes in govt want to make money by introducing LPG?

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[ehalin]

To sum up,

1. Natural gas resources are indeed depleting.
2. Only 4% goes to auto sector/ most gas is consumed by IPPs(35%) and Home users(16%).
3. Industry is suffering because of gas being diverted to power sector and NOT automobile
4. We may have low gas reserves but we have much lower and fast depleting Foreign Reserves. The consequences are much serious for the latter.
5. If you're not a CNG user, stop thinking that you are royal and doing this nation a favor. If you wan't to support, you may start by shutting down extra lights and air conditioners in your house.
6. Solution lies in
   -Exploration of new resources
   -Diversion of natural gas from power sector by replacing gas powered IPPs with hydel powered (will require dams), ---- --Introduce Mass transit system in bigger cities
   -Construction of Pak-Iran gas pipeline.

I hope the above explanation is enough.[/QUOTE]

Really the above explanation is not enough!!! I have commented on many similar topics as well. This is not a political forum so I don't want to make it a political debate. Purely on technical grounds I want to add into your "explanation" above.

Dams are most of the times not built for power generation. They are built for water storage. By not building "Kalabagh Dam" we have already signed our own death warrants. Fuel or energy shortage is the start and water and food shortage and probably a famine similar to the one in Ethiopia could be the end. I am not a pessimist but the way we have closed our eyes to a future of devastation by opting not to build dams has prompted me to portray such gloomy picture. People like us living in rural areas and belonging to farming community are already experiencing due to shortage of water the decrease in quality and level of local aquafers. Even in my area the water level has dropped from 12~14 feet to 30~35 feet and water is more brackish now. In some areas people even have to use turbines instead of centrifugal pumps due to very low level of ground water. And any literate person knows that even this ground water resource is not limitless. It is finite and when this is depleted then we will face an acute water shortage. By using this brackish water we are making our lands in-fretile by adding more salts. Believe me our future generations will never forgive us for not acting at this time while we can.

Once again I am sorry for going off topic. But all these things are inter-related. The drama that is unfolding in the shape of CNG shortage or gas shortage will not end here. It is the beginning folks! See what happens next.

May Allah give us strength to make right decisions and bless Pakistan.

[fahadwizz]

I doubt that CNG sector is using 4% of gas since it is the fastest growing sector & it is probably in double digit by now. P.S the data dates back to FY 2009-2010 since the person published this data in year 2011, research is always based on previous years data so i assume the author calculated pre 2011.

anyway, I agree that CNG is beneficial as in its cheaper than oil but we have to see how our gas resources going to work out in coming years. We have to prioritise the usage of gas since our reserves are depleting at a faster rate now.

It takes years to explore new gas fields & setting up of new infrastructure for supplying gas nor its easy to build newer dams. Bahsha dam will take minimum 10 years! nuclear plants are expensive to build & they take few years too! gas supply from Iran will not come till 2014 if agreement goes ahead & gas from central Asia will not come here before 2020! so my naive Pakistanis its not a piece of cake to make energy resource be available in abundance to us consumers within days or weeks, we have to be wise & sensible.

Well the over all consumption might have increased but the percentage should stay round about the same.

[IsbCap]

It takes years to explore new gas fields & setting up of new infrastructure for supplying gas nor its easy to build newer dams. Bahsha dam will take minimum 10 years! nuclear plants are expensive to build & they take few years too! gas supply from Iran will not come till 2014 if agreement goes ahead & gas from central Asia will not come here before 2020! so my naive Pakistanis its not a piece of cake to make energy resource be available in abundance to us consumers within days or weeks, we have to be wise & sensible.

Whose fault is this? Do we pay billions of rupees in taxes, just for so called elected ruler's ayashi?

Should I or you or some PW member have foreseen this situation and planned accordingly, or the so called elected politicians or hundreds of government departments, enjoying salaries and benefits from tax payer's pockets, have done it?

There is continuous air flow in coastal areas of Pakistan. If a wind mil is deployed, it can probably power 1/4th of country, or atleast the Sindh province. Whose fault is this to not deploy it for years?

[ehalin]

[QUOTE=saintdarko;3652690]I doubt that CNG sector is using 4% of gas since it is the fastest growing sector & it is probably in double digit by now. P.S the data dates back to FY 2009-2010 since the person published this data in year 2011, research is always based on previous years data so i assume the author calculated pre 2011.

anyway, I agree that CNG is beneficial as in its cheaper than oil but we have to see how our gas resources going to work out in coming years. We have to prioritise the usage of gas since our reserves are depleting at a faster rate now.

It takes years to explore new gas fields & setting up of new infrastructure for supplying gas nor its easy to build newer dams. Bahsha dam will take minimum 10 years! nuclear plants are expensive to build & they take few years too! gas supply from Iran will not come till 2014 if agreement goes ahead & gas from central Asia will not come here before 2020! so my naive Pakistanis its not a piece of cake to make energy resource be available in abundance to us consumers within days or weeks, we have to be wise & sensible.[/QUOTE

You are right we need to prioritise. Transport is the last sector in priority for NG. We cannot make other options (Iran gas pipeline, LNG, dams, coal etc.) available over night. Power generation, industry, domestic use (cooking etc.) should be on priority for NG until then.

[fahadwizz]

[QUOTE=saintdarko;3652690]I doubt that CNG sector is using 4% of gas since it is the fastest growing sector & it is probably in double digit by now. P.S the data dates back to FY 2009-2010 since the person published this data in year 2011, research is always based on previous years data so i assume the author calculated pre 2011.

anyway, I agree that CNG is beneficial as in its cheaper than oil but we have to see how our gas resources going to work out in coming years. We have to prioritise the usage of gas since our reserves are depleting at a faster rate now.

It takes years to explore new gas fields & setting up of new infrastructure for supplying gas nor its easy to build newer dams. Bahsha dam will take minimum 10 years! nuclear plants are expensive to build & they take few years too! gas supply from Iran will not come till 2014 if agreement goes ahead & gas from central Asia will not come here before 2020! so my naive Pakistanis its not a piece of cake to make energy resource be available in abundance to us consumers within days or weeks, we have to be wise & sensible.[/QUOTE

You are right we need to prioritise. Transport is the last sector in priority for NG. We cannot make other options (Iran gas pipeline, LNG, dams, coal etc.) available over night. Power generation, industry, domestic use (cooking etc.) should be on priority for NG until then.

As per the agreement , Pakistan has to complete its side of Pak-Iran pipe line construction by 2014. If we failed to do so , we will be fined on daily bases. 2014 is not far! I think we can manage for two years!

As for the nuclear power plants, we can not really work with nuclear technology for obvious reasons. KANUP power plant was imported and setup by a Canadian firm. It remained shut down for a pretty long time and it is only recently that it has been restarted and is now working at a pretty decent capacity of 60-80 MW.

Anyways cutting everything short! How would you solve the depleting dollar reserves? Lets say we shut down natural gas usage in cars. Don't you think we need import extra gasoline at around 90$/Barrel ?

As a business men you will have to weigh between costs and benefits. Increase in import of fuel and we will have to opt for another IMF program which means higher taxes and interest rates, sharp increase in inflation all point towards a lackluster business activity. IMF program is never good for business as its kind of anti GDP. I see dams as a solution both for water and power needs. About your concerns regarding Punjab being able to block water to upper/lower Sindh, well its risk we will have to take. Its the only way to store flood water. When water levels are declining naturally would you not wan't to store when its in excess?

[saintdarko]

Whose fault is this? Do we pay billions of rupees in taxes, just for so called elected ruler's ayashi?

Should I or you or some PW member have foreseen this situation and planned accordingly, or the so called elected politicians or hundreds of government departments, enjoying salaries and benefits from tax payer's pockets, have done it?

There is continuous air flow in coastal areas of Pakistan. If a wind mil is deployed, it can probably power 1/4th of country, or atleast the Sindh province. Whose fault is this to not deploy it for years?

I'm not in the government just pointing out some facts which people don't understand, its just not easy at the moment to just build a big dam, nuclear plants, new gas fields etc within few weeks or months or a year, even wind mills will take few years to manufacture & install, just do some research on wind mills, how long does it take to build 1MW worth of electricity & not to forget the high costs with it.

people are talking about LPG here but LPG is here since years now! There is no difference between LPG mafia & CNG mafia. It is us who made them stronger. Such things never happened with petrol before this CNG but thanks to our Govt now even petrol stations refuse to give petrol when there is a news of increase in prices.

best option for government is to let duty free import of hybrid cars, electric cars are not a good option at the moment with electricity crisis. CNG is not the way forward with current situation which will worsen in coming years.

[raza1]

I dont know the basis of 4% consumption by CNG sector, whereas the CNG association (the main stakeholders) claim themselves on TV that we are consuming 7% to 8%.

Here is the link (official) CNG sector was using more than 5.41% in 2007-08, and CNG sector is growing with the pace of 23 to 25%. Please also refer to page no. 256 of the report, which shows the SNGPL and SSGPL collectively sold 18.63% gas to CNG stations during 2007-08. (The SNGPL and SSGPL figures are published figures can be verified independently).

http://finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters/15-Energy08.pdf

Ps. I am searching for latest figures, will post the links as soon as I find em.

@ fawad, can you please mention the year to which the above data belongs? I think the date you have posted is at least 6 years old.

[raza1]

Oh just observed that the source is Saeed Khan Jadoon Sb.'s presentation which he gave in Serena Hotel Islamabad somewhere in March or April 2011.

Lolz... simply lolz.. just try to find out any person who attended the presentation and ask about the question answer session.

[fahadwizz]

Ok buddy, got my hands on the hard copy of statistical supplement of Economic Survey FY2011. I guess the above quoted source was not reliable. My bad!

[raza1]

Ok buddy, got my hands on the hard copy of statistical supplement of Economic Survey FY2011. I guess the above quoted source was not reliable. My bad!

Yes, and it is the fastest growing sector w.r.t to gas consumption, showing growth of 25%, thats why everyone is concerned about it. We do not have gas in abundance so this need to be stopped here, until new reserves are discovered and discovered reserves are extracted.

[hasooboy]

the general people will have to improvise themselves, start to carpool, its simply not workable for every single person to drive their own car to work in Pakistan. The authorities should get foriegn firms to bring in proper mass transit systems, foreign because Pakistan completely lacks such discipline in education and hence cannot deploy.

Yes that's the right solution but sadly we don't have enough good transit system i still remember those days when green buses and metro was ruining on road i always used to travel on them, but due to transport mafia they didn't last long.