The 2011 AUTOSPORT gamble
At the start of every season, the AUTOSPORT team gets off the fence and picks their tips for the drivers' and constructors' championships. Each member predicts the top five drivers, ranking them from first to fifth, and likewise for the top five teams. The first receives five points, second four, and so on down to fifth. Collating the votes results in what AUTOSPORT predicts will be the standings at the end of the season. In eight months time we'll know whether we rule, or if we're just a bunch of fools... <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td width="25">
</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">By AUTOSPORT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table class="content" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="bluebg" colspan="17" height="20">THE 2011 DRIVERS' CHAMPIONSHIP GAMBLE</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td class="greybg" align="left">Pos</td> <td class="greybg">Driver</td> <td class="greybg">SS</td> <td class="greybg">AC</td> <td class="greybg">MG</td> <td class="greybg">CB</td> <td class="greybg">PE</td> <td class="greybg">MB</td> <td class="greybg">TD</td> <td class="greybg">JOL</td> <td class="greybg">BA</td> <td class="greybg">JN</td> <td class="greybg">KT</td> <td class="greybg">DR</td> <td class="greybg">ES</td> <td class="greybg">AV</td> <td class="greybg">Total</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>1.</td> <td>Vettel</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>3</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>66</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>2.</td> <td>Alonso</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>55</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>3.</td> <td>Webber</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>40</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>4.</td> <td>Hamilton</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>22</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>5.</td> <td>Massa</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>6</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>6.</td> <td>Heidfeld</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>5</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>8</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>7.</td> <td>Button</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>5</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>8.</td> <td>Schumacher</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>4</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>9.</td> <td>Rosberg</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>3</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="content" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="bluebg" colspan="17" height="20">THE 2011 CONSTRUCTORS' CHAMPIONSHIP GAMBLE</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td class="greybg" align="left">Pos</td> <td class="greybg">Team</td> <td class="greybg">SS</td> <td class="greybg">AC</td> <td class="greybg">MG</td> <td class="greybg">CB</td> <td class="greybg">PE</td> <td class="greybg">MB</td> <td class="greybg">TD</td> <td class="greybg">JOL</td> <td class="greybg">BA</td> <td class="greybg">JN</td> <td class="greybg">KT</td> <td class="greybg">DR</td> <td class="greybg">ES</td> <td class="greybg">AV</td> <td class="greybg">Total</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>1.</td> <td>Red Bull</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>69</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>2.</td> <td>Ferrari</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>56</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>3.</td> <td>McLaren</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>4</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>33</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>4.</td> <td>Mercedes</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>25</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>5.</td> <td>Renault</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>25</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>6.</td> <td>Toro Rosso</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td></tr></tbody></table>
Simon Strang, AUTOSPORT.com editor (SS)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Schumacher; 5. Hamilton
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren
I have a sneaky feeling that Fernando Alonso might actually come out on top this year, but in the end logic prevails and there are just too many factors pointing to Vettel and Red Bull – not least of which is that Sebastian knows how to win titles now. Webber is over last year, but for him being a world champion remains an unknown and all his key rivals now have that knowledge. I still believe Schumacher can bring something to the game while Hamilton and Button will overcome whatever shortcomings exist within the McLaren MP4-26 to play a part this year.
Team-wise Red Bull looks secure in its position as champion, while Ferrari has been ominously efficient in testing. Mercedes turned testing around in the end and, I think, could usurp Renault through the year. McLaren it seems have a lot to do, but if any team can achieve time recovery miracles it's that one. Question remains why it should have to?
Adam Cooper, AUTOSPORT contributing writer (AC)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Massa; 5. Rosberg
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td width="25">
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</td> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table class="content" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="bluebg" colspan="17" height="20">THE 2011 DRIVERS' CHAMPIONSHIP GAMBLE</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td class="greybg" align="left">Pos</td> <td class="greybg">Driver</td> <td class="greybg">SS</td> <td class="greybg">AC</td> <td class="greybg">MG</td> <td class="greybg">CB</td> <td class="greybg">PE</td> <td class="greybg">MB</td> <td class="greybg">TD</td> <td class="greybg">JOL</td> <td class="greybg">BA</td> <td class="greybg">JN</td> <td class="greybg">KT</td> <td class="greybg">DR</td> <td class="greybg">ES</td> <td class="greybg">AV</td> <td class="greybg">Total</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>1.</td> <td>Vettel</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>3</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>66</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>2.</td> <td>Alonso</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>55</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>3.</td> <td>Webber</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>40</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>4.</td> <td>Hamilton</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>22</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>5.</td> <td>Massa</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>6</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>6.</td> <td>Heidfeld</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>5</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>8</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>7.</td> <td>Button</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>5</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>8.</td> <td>Schumacher</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>4</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>9.</td> <td>Rosberg</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>3</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="content" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="bluebg" colspan="17" height="20">THE 2011 CONSTRUCTORS' CHAMPIONSHIP GAMBLE</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td class="greybg" align="left">Pos</td> <td class="greybg">Team</td> <td class="greybg">SS</td> <td class="greybg">AC</td> <td class="greybg">MG</td> <td class="greybg">CB</td> <td class="greybg">PE</td> <td class="greybg">MB</td> <td class="greybg">TD</td> <td class="greybg">JOL</td> <td class="greybg">BA</td> <td class="greybg">JN</td> <td class="greybg">KT</td> <td class="greybg">DR</td> <td class="greybg">ES</td> <td class="greybg">AV</td> <td class="greybg">Total</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>1.</td> <td>Red Bull</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>5</td> <td>69</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>2.</td> <td>Ferrari</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>5</td> <td>4</td> <td>4</td> <td>56</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>3.</td> <td>McLaren</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>4</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>33</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>4.</td> <td>Mercedes</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>25</td></tr> <tr class="boxes" align="center"> <td>5.</td> <td>Renault</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td> <td>3</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>25</td></tr> <tr class="boxes rowalt" align="center"> <td>6.</td> <td>Toro Rosso</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>2</td></tr></tbody></table>
Simon Strang, AUTOSPORT.com editor (SS)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Schumacher; 5. Hamilton
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren
I have a sneaky feeling that Fernando Alonso might actually come out on top this year, but in the end logic prevails and there are just too many factors pointing to Vettel and Red Bull – not least of which is that Sebastian knows how to win titles now. Webber is over last year, but for him being a world champion remains an unknown and all his key rivals now have that knowledge. I still believe Schumacher can bring something to the game while Hamilton and Button will overcome whatever shortcomings exist within the McLaren MP4-26 to play a part this year.
Team-wise Red Bull looks secure in its position as champion, while Ferrari has been ominously efficient in testing. Mercedes turned testing around in the end and, I think, could usurp Renault through the year. McLaren it seems have a lot to do, but if any team can achieve time recovery miracles it's that one. Question remains why it should have to?
Adam Cooper, AUTOSPORT contributing writer (AC)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Massa; 5. Rosberg
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren
No big gambles here I'm afraid! We have to take testing at face value and assume that in essence 2011 will be about Red Bull and Ferrari. After that it's anybody's guess, but I have a feeling that Vettel will be super strong this year, and Webber just won't get the breaks that he had last year.
Obviously a lot of people are backing Alonso and that's a logical assumption, but if I have to make the choice, I'll go with Seb. I expect Massa to be a lot stronger than he was last year, which will make the Ferrari situation more interesting.
Mercedes could turn out to be a more potent force than I'm suggesting here, and I'm also putting a lot of faith in the Renault drivers being able to get the most out of what could be a very good car. I am sure McLaren will make become more competitive as the year goes on but I suspect that they will be too far behind to make too much progress up the order.
Mark Glendenning, AUTOSPORT deputy F1 editor (MG)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Massa
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. McLaren; 5. Toro Rosso
Red Bull and Ferrari looked like they had things nailed during testing, and the improvements from Mercedes might be just enough to protect them from any mid-season recovery by McLaren. Nevertheless, I'm still not sure whether either of the Mercedes drivers will be consistent enough to feature in the title battle.
Felipe Massa should step up a bit this year – he has little choice if he wants to keep his job – and although the midfield looks even more difficult to pick than it is normally, there was something about Toro Rosso in testing that made me wonder whether it can be this year's surprise package.
Charles Bradley, AUTOSPORT deputy editor (CB)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Hamilton; 4. Webber; 5. Button
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault
Now Red Bull has nailed its first title, I can't see anything upsetting its success – not the new moveable wings, Pirelli tyres or the return of KERS. That said, Ferrari's Fernando Alonso will not go down without a fight, and we could be in for the sort of full-on head-to-head duel we haven't seen since Alonso vs Schumacher.
But Vettel should prevail again. McLaren and Mercedes don't seem prepared to challenge the big two from the start, while Renault's drivers simply aren't good enough to beat them.
Pablo Elizalde, AUTOSPORT.com managing editor (PE)
1. Heidfeld; 2. Alonso; 3. Vettel; 4. Hamilton; 5. Rosberg
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. Mercedes
You can call me crazy. Yes, it is very, very unlikely that Nick Heidfeld will be the 2011 world champion, but I prefer to fail (or triumph) spectacularly rather than pick Alonso and then lose out to Vettel. After all, Quick Nick winning the title would be a fairy tale story, and who doesn't like those? In reality, however, Alonso or Vettel will win the title this year, but I reckon the Spaniard will edge the German this season because Ferrari will get things right throughout the whole year.
Hamilton's McLaren will again struggle at the start of the season and that will rule the Briton out of the championship fight, while Rosberg will finally get his first win and enjoy another consistent season, but fighting for the title will be tall order.
Matt Beer, AUTOSPORT.com writer (MB)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button
1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Renault; 5. Toro Rosso
Yes, that is exactly the same drivers outcome as last year. Sorry to be tedious, but it's looking like Ferrari chasing a slightly faster Red Bull again, and surely with a title under his belt there will be less daftness, more domination from Vettel in 2011.
Even though things have looked bleak for McLaren in testing, it has proved rather good at swiftly going from the back to the front in the recent past, so it will get there.
Tony Dodgins, AUTOSPORT contributing writer(TD)
1. Alonso; 2, Vettel. 3. Webber; 4. Massa; 5. Rosberg
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren
Logic tells you to go for Red Bull. They've had a super-reliable testing programme and the RB7 will inevitably be quick. So why am I plumping for Alonso? The Ferrari has run like clockwork too and it's simply that over recent seasons Ferrari chassis have been very easy on their rubber and I think that will be key in 2011.
For that reason I'm going for Fernando to take his first crown in five years. I do think that Vettel/Webber is a better combination than Alonso/Massa though, so will take Christian Horner's troops to retain their constructors crown. The take on McLaren is only because they appear to be starting the year with a deficit.
Jamie O'Leary, AUTOSPORT BTCC editor (JOL)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Massa
1 Red Bull; 2 Ferrari; 3 McLaren; 4 Renault; 5 Mercedes
Testing form points towards a Red Bull v Ferrari fight this year, and while this may not be the case in Australia, thanks to its usual job of throwing up the unexpected, it should be the early-season pattern. Mark Webber will have a massive task to turn the tide against Sebastian Vettel in the team, and this should allow Ferrari number one Fernando Alonso to take advantage.
Lewis Hamilton will be there or thereabouts, as he was in 2010 – he's too good not to be – but he will probably have to drive out of his skin just to stay in touch with the Red Bulls and Ferraris when things go to plan for the latter teams.
The Renault looks better than the McLaren at the moment, but Nick Heidfeld and Vitaly Petrov is not the line-up that Hamilton and Jenson Button is, while Mercedes, despite a slow start, will still have too much strength to be beaten by Williams or testing surprise Toro Rosso.
Ben Anderson, AUTOSPORT editorial assistant (BA)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Mercedes
Red Bull has had the fastest car in F1 for the past two seasons and it's hard to see that changing this year, which should mean reigning champ Vettel and team-mate Webber will enjoy the lion's share of time at the front.
An Alonso-centred Ferrari can never be discounted and McLaren should be there or thereabouts, while Renault could edge closer to breaking back into the big league with its innovative design – despite the loss of star driver Robert Kubica.
Jonathan Noble, AUTOSPORT F1 group editor (JN)
1. Vettel; 2. Webber; 3. Alonso; 4. Schumacher; 5. Heidfeld
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren
New rules, new tyres and new cars – but it still seems that the top team of 2010 is going to be the benchmark again in 2011. With Red Bull Racing's RB7 looking swift in winter testing, and Sebastian Vettel a more confident and consistent driver than he was last year, it is hard seeing anyone beating him.
But even so, there will still be great days for Fernando Alonso, for Renault and for Mercedes GP with Michael Schumacher – who will have taken on board the areas he struggled last year and will knuckle down to prove his comeback was not a mistake.
Kevin Turner, AUTOSPORT national editor (KT)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault
There have been enough hints in testing that Red Bull will again set the pace and it seems unlikely the team will have the problems, or make the mistakes, that hampered its 2010 challenge. You can't discount Fernando Alonso, especially if the tyre situation makes reacting to changing situations more important, and Ferrari shouldn't be far away.
McLaren and Mercedes have both had troubles in testings, but it's hard not to believe they will not ultimately develop themselves ahead of Renault and Williams, who will probably start the season looking strong. Losing Robert Kubica is a big blow for Renault, but Nick Heidfeld will do a solid job and pick up some decent points if the car is good.
Dieter Rencken, AUTOSPORT.com columnist (DR)
1. Alonso 2. Vettel; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button
1. Ferrari; 2. Red Bull; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Mercedes
Having missed out by a whisker, Fernando Alonso won't let a first Ferrari slip through his fingers again. Expect him to be utterly committed from FP1 in Melbourne through to Brazil's chequer.
But, it will be exceedingly close: Vettel will defend to the last; Mark Webber knows his body clocking is ticking merrily, and the likes of Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button can't be discounted. Then, Felipe Massa knows he's in last-chance saloon…
Tyres are this season's joker: get them right and you're smiling; screw them and its 'good-bye title', so the team that gets the rubber equation right will take it. Just two will get it right: Ferrari and Red Bull, likely in that order, from McLaren, with Renault springing the odd surprise.
Edd straw, AUTOSPORT F1 editor(ES)
1. Vettel; 2. Webber; 3. Alonso; 4. Hamilton; 5. Heidfeld
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault
Red Bull is a real deal as a top team, so it makes sense that its two drivers will end up as the top two in the championship and lead the team to the constructors' title. Even if Fernando Alonso manages to take the crown for Ferrari, it's likely that Felipe Massa won't be able to bring home enough points to grab the constructors' as well.
Although pre-season testing suggests that the season will start with Red Bull pitted against Ferrari, it's incredibly difficult to tell with the wild card of the new Pirelli rubber and the moving goalposts of adjustable wings. Lewis Hamilton's tenacious performances will haul him to fourth in a car that will not start the season in great shape and although I suspect that Renault and Mercedes might have a faster car than Scuderia Woking at the start of the season, the strength of the McLaren line-up will see it to third in the constructors.
Disclaimer: It's almost certain that the above will prove to be utterly wrong.
Andrew van de Burgt, AUTOSPORT editor (AV)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Heidfeld
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Mercedes
I expect to see domination of epic proportions this year from Vettel - like last year but without the mistakes and bad luck. Alonso's skills will keep him in the hunt, while Hamilton will have the McLaren in places it has no business being in at the start of the season. A string of fourths, fifths and sixths are the backbone to Heidfeld's season.
As we've seen countless times before, stable rules favour the status quo and I expect Red Bull to dominate until 2013. Ferrari will keep it honest though. McLaren is in trouble at the moment but only a fool would write them off. Expect a mid/late season resurgence. I can't see anyone else winning a race in normal conditions but Renault or Mercedes may just nick one if they read the conditions correctly.
No big gambles here I'm afraid! We have to take testing at face value and assume that in essence 2011 will be about Red Bull and Ferrari. After that it's anybody's guess, but I have a feeling that Vettel will be super strong this year, and Webber just won't get the breaks that he had last year.
Obviously a lot of people are backing Alonso and that's a logical assumption, but if I have to make the choice, I'll go with Seb. I expect Massa to be a lot stronger than he was last year, which will make the Ferrari situation more interesting.
Mercedes could turn out to be a more potent force than I'm suggesting here, and I'm also putting a lot of faith in the Renault drivers being able to get the most out of what could be a very good car. I am sure McLaren will make become more competitive as the year goes on but I suspect that they will be too far behind to make too much progress up the order.
Mark Glendenning, AUTOSPORT deputy F1 editor (MG)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Massa
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. McLaren; 5. Toro Rosso
Red Bull and Ferrari looked like they had things nailed during testing, and the improvements from Mercedes might be just enough to protect them from any mid-season recovery by McLaren. Nevertheless, I'm still not sure whether either of the Mercedes drivers will be consistent enough to feature in the title battle.
Felipe Massa should step up a bit this year – he has little choice if he wants to keep his job – and although the midfield looks even more difficult to pick than it is normally, there was something about Toro Rosso in testing that made me wonder whether it can be this year's surprise package.
Charles Bradley, AUTOSPORT deputy editor (CB)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Hamilton; 4. Webber; 5. Button
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault
Now Red Bull has nailed its first title, I can't see anything upsetting its success – not the new moveable wings, Pirelli tyres or the return of KERS. That said, Ferrari's Fernando Alonso will not go down without a fight, and we could be in for the sort of full-on head-to-head duel we haven't seen since Alonso vs Schumacher.
But Vettel should prevail again. McLaren and Mercedes don't seem prepared to challenge the big two from the start, while Renault's drivers simply aren't good enough to beat them.
Pablo Elizalde, AUTOSPORT.com managing editor (PE)
1. Heidfeld; 2. Alonso; 3. Vettel; 4. Hamilton; 5. Rosberg
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. Mercedes
You can call me crazy. Yes, it is very, very unlikely that Nick Heidfeld will be the 2011 world champion, but I prefer to fail (or triumph) spectacularly rather than pick Alonso and then lose out to Vettel. After all, Quick Nick winning the title would be a fairy tale story, and who doesn't like those? In reality, however, Alonso or Vettel will win the title this year, but I reckon the Spaniard will edge the German this season because Ferrari will get things right throughout the whole year.
Hamilton's McLaren will again struggle at the start of the season and that will rule the Briton out of the championship fight, while Rosberg will finally get his first win and enjoy another consistent season, but fighting for the title will be tall order.
Matt Beer, AUTOSPORT.com writer (MB)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button
1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Renault; 5. Toro Rosso
Yes, that is exactly the same drivers outcome as last year. Sorry to be tedious, but it's looking like Ferrari chasing a slightly faster Red Bull again, and surely with a title under his belt there will be less daftness, more domination from Vettel in 2011.
Even though things have looked bleak for McLaren in testing, it has proved rather good at swiftly going from the back to the front in the recent past, so it will get there.
Tony Dodgins, AUTOSPORT contributing writer(TD)
1. Alonso; 2, Vettel. 3. Webber; 4. Massa; 5. Rosberg
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren
Logic tells you to go for Red Bull. They've had a super-reliable testing programme and the RB7 will inevitably be quick. So why am I plumping for Alonso? The Ferrari has run like clockwork too and it's simply that over recent seasons Ferrari chassis have been very easy on their rubber and I think that will be key in 2011.
For that reason I'm going for Fernando to take his first crown in five years. I do think that Vettel/Webber is a better combination than Alonso/Massa though, so will take Christian Horner's troops to retain their constructors crown. The take on McLaren is only because they appear to be starting the year with a deficit.
Jamie O'Leary, AUTOSPORT BTCC editor (JOL)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Massa
1 Red Bull; 2 Ferrari; 3 McLaren; 4 Renault; 5 Mercedes
Testing form points towards a Red Bull v Ferrari fight this year, and while this may not be the case in Australia, thanks to its usual job of throwing up the unexpected, it should be the early-season pattern. Mark Webber will have a massive task to turn the tide against Sebastian Vettel in the team, and this should allow Ferrari number one Fernando Alonso to take advantage.
Lewis Hamilton will be there or thereabouts, as he was in 2010 – he's too good not to be – but he will probably have to drive out of his skin just to stay in touch with the Red Bulls and Ferraris when things go to plan for the latter teams.
The Renault looks better than the McLaren at the moment, but Nick Heidfeld and Vitaly Petrov is not the line-up that Hamilton and Jenson Button is, while Mercedes, despite a slow start, will still have too much strength to be beaten by Williams or testing surprise Toro Rosso.
Ben Anderson, AUTOSPORT editorial assistant (BA)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Mercedes
Red Bull has had the fastest car in F1 for the past two seasons and it's hard to see that changing this year, which should mean reigning champ Vettel and team-mate Webber will enjoy the lion's share of time at the front.
An Alonso-centred Ferrari can never be discounted and McLaren should be there or thereabouts, while Renault could edge closer to breaking back into the big league with its innovative design – despite the loss of star driver Robert Kubica.
Jonathan Noble, AUTOSPORT F1 group editor (JN)
1. Vettel; 2. Webber; 3. Alonso; 4. Schumacher; 5. Heidfeld
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mercedes; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren
New rules, new tyres and new cars – but it still seems that the top team of 2010 is going to be the benchmark again in 2011. With Red Bull Racing's RB7 looking swift in winter testing, and Sebastian Vettel a more confident and consistent driver than he was last year, it is hard seeing anyone beating him.
But even so, there will still be great days for Fernando Alonso, for Renault and for Mercedes GP with Michael Schumacher – who will have taken on board the areas he struggled last year and will knuckle down to prove his comeback was not a mistake.
Kevin Turner, AUTOSPORT national editor (KT)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault
There have been enough hints in testing that Red Bull will again set the pace and it seems unlikely the team will have the problems, or make the mistakes, that hampered its 2010 challenge. You can't discount Fernando Alonso, especially if the tyre situation makes reacting to changing situations more important, and Ferrari shouldn't be far away.
McLaren and Mercedes have both had troubles in testings, but it's hard not to believe they will not ultimately develop themselves ahead of Renault and Williams, who will probably start the season looking strong. Losing Robert Kubica is a big blow for Renault, but Nick Heidfeld will do a solid job and pick up some decent points if the car is good.
Dieter Rencken, AUTOSPORT.com columnist (DR)
1. Alonso 2. Vettel; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Button
1. Ferrari; 2. Red Bull; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Mercedes
Having missed out by a whisker, Fernando Alonso won't let a first Ferrari slip through his fingers again. Expect him to be utterly committed from FP1 in Melbourne through to Brazil's chequer.
But, it will be exceedingly close: Vettel will defend to the last; Mark Webber knows his body clocking is ticking merrily, and the likes of Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button can't be discounted. Then, Felipe Massa knows he's in last-chance saloon…
Tyres are this season's joker: get them right and you're smiling; screw them and its 'good-bye title', so the team that gets the rubber equation right will take it. Just two will get it right: Ferrari and Red Bull, likely in that order, from McLaren, with Renault springing the odd surprise.
Edd straw, AUTOSPORT F1 editor(ES)
1. Vettel; 2. Webber; 3. Alonso; 4. Hamilton; 5. Heidfeld
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Mercedes; 5. Renault
Red Bull is a real deal as a top team, so it makes sense that its two drivers will end up as the top two in the championship and lead the team to the constructors' title. Even if Fernando Alonso manages to take the crown for Ferrari, it's likely that Felipe Massa won't be able to bring home enough points to grab the constructors' as well.
Although pre-season testing suggests that the season will start with Red Bull pitted against Ferrari, it's incredibly difficult to tell with the wild card of the new Pirelli rubber and the moving goalposts of adjustable wings. Lewis Hamilton's tenacious performances will haul him to fourth in a car that will not start the season in great shape and although I suspect that Renault and Mercedes might have a faster car than Scuderia Woking at the start of the season, the strength of the McLaren line-up will see it to third in the constructors.
Andrew van de Burgt, AUTOSPORT editor (AV)
1. Vettel; 2. Alonso; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Heidfeld
1. Red Bull; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Mercedes
I expect to see domination of epic proportions this year from Vettel - like last year but without the mistakes and bad luck. Alonso's skills will keep him in the hunt, while Hamilton will have the McLaren in places it has no business being in at the start of the season. A string of fourths, fifths and sixths are the backbone to Heidfeld's season.
As we've seen countless times before, stable rules favour the status quo and I expect Red Bull to dominate until 2013. Ferrari will keep it honest though. McLaren is in trouble at the moment but only a fool would write them off. Expect a mid/late season resurgence. I can't see anyone else winning a race in normal conditions but Renault or Mercedes may just nick one if they read the conditions correctly.

Disclaimer: It's almost certain that the above will prove to be utterly wrong.
Source: Autosport