non-sense figures....no offense!
where did you come up with the 27million figure?
it doesn't matter how many people there are.
You have to look at existing sales figures and then its only a matter of guess work that what percent of that people would buy your product.
Please take a look at some real statistics:
launching a bike for more than 200,000 will be a commercial failure.
there is not enough market for such bikes.
My estimate would be that if you were to launch such a bike, you would probably sell at max a few hundred in the in the 2nd year. 1st year would be even less, maybe 100 if lucky.
Now lets consider total investment required for a minimum efficient scale factory for producing these bikes:
land : at least 4kanals for a tiny factory = roughly 1 crore or so for something decent. probably more for a better location.
civil work (20,000sq foot hall)= around 2crore or more.
equipemt= varies depending on productivity and level of automation but you can expect to spend around 2crore or so for a basic setup and capacity of around 1000-2000 bikes per annum max.
other expenses including working capital and marketing etc = 1crore or so
total= 6 crore or 60million.
and this is just an estimate, a very rough one. and i have not included any quality control etc...that will cost more. this is just assembly and frame/chasis etc.
total revenues expected for first year = 100 X 200,000 = 2crore
estimated profit margin= 10% of revenue
profit for 1st year = 20lacs
estimated revenues for 2nd year = 300 X 200,000 = 6crore
profit for 2nd year = 60 lacs
interest rate = 12%+
return on 6crore investment if put in saving account for 2 years = 1.5crore+
predicted return from bike factory = 60+20 = 80lacs
0.8crore vs 1.5+crore
so now where would you invest? bike factory or just keep it in savings account?
