Will Rupee Devalue Further? Economic roller coaster

[mgalaxy3]

This is an excellent post.

Unfortunately, some of our people blindly follow the manjan sold by their favorite party without looking at things objectively.

Post 2018, they intentionally allowed the currency to fall freely. Which was in nobody’s interest. Only dollar hoarders, speculators got massive profits. And that led to even worse effects as our traders and companies never were sure of exchange rate, giving further rise to local inflation.

One example is car companies continuing to hike prices, delaying deliveries to make up for uncertain $ rate.

Only sattay baz n speculators win in the kind of environment we live in, when rupee is allowed to free fall.

Gotta fix some of the blunders made in last four years. Even though I’m no N league fan but gotta give credit where it’s due for individuals.

[capsat]

look around besides Shabbar Zaidi / Dr. Waqar Hassan give me 1 NAME who can stand up and speak truth across the board addressing every lunatic in system (judges, generals, bureaucrats, industrialists, businessman) all included

everyone is focusing short term 3 years 5 years 10 years, Tops 15. Beyond that, common comment is " we may not be here " by then so let the people at that time decides future. Ironic isn't it.

we may have dodged Sri Lanka crash, but it is very much ahead and visible

[Nabs]

People advocating for fixed USD rate should see Lebanon. Its economy has collapsed, but the official exchange rate is still the same for last 20 years. Official rate is around 1,500 Lebanese pound per dollar, while unofficial rate in the real/black market is 40,000 (Source: https://lirarate.org/) which is 27 times more than official rate. If dollar rate is fixed in Pakistan, it will disappear from official market, and migrate to black market, just like in Lebanon.

Right now India is burning through it forex reserves to save its currency from devaluation and is failing miserably. Forex reserves down by nearly $100 billion (-15%) in a year, and its currency has still devalued by -13%.

Unless Pakistan finds large oil fields, dollar rate can't be fixed. You can temporarily hold the currency value, but then the bubble will burst and it will shoot like a rocket. Look at this chart when Dar fixed the currency last time.

Last time low oil prices helped in fixing the dollar value. This time I don't think even Dar can do his magic for long. Oil prices are again going up after OPEC cut supply by 2 million barrels per day. Went from $76 to $92 in a just few days.

[Nabs]

SBP-held foreign exchange reserves decline $106mn to $7.9bn (October 6, 2022)

[Falcon22]

Off topic question. Any idea about the Freelance visa of UAE. Can anyone please share the process and fees.

[Nabs]

Its too expensive for small freelancers. For large freelancers they also have 9% corporate tax now which also applies to freelancers (income above AED 375K, about USD 100K in a year). The visa information is easily available online, Google it.

I pay 1% tax here, which I am trying to reduce to 0.25%. Registered with PSEB in August, but they are not issuing certificate that I need to give my bank.

UAE is my backup option. If Pakistan impose regular tax on freelancer exports, I will move to UAE.

[noobie]

Malaysia has also introduced freelancer/nomad visa recently and i believe It's a better option compared to UAE due to lower cost of living.

[mgalaxy3]

@Nabs I don’t think anyone is calling for fixed rate .

I personally am saying, keep the speculators, hoarders and investors out. That can happen when it’s not allowed to be at complete mercy of such people. And prevent it from free falling.

We never had enough reserves to keep pumping in the market to keep rupee stable. Neither do we have them now. It’s about keeping evil forces out of the market and keeping a check n balance.

[mgalaxy3]

@noobie that’s interesting. Also seems easier as income requirement is less. But looks like max 2 years are possible on it

[Nabs]

What are the tax implications? If you're going to pay regular tax, then any EU country is a better choice, especially Portugal's D7 visa, as you can become an EU citizen.

[mgalaxy3]

Looks like you can’t open a bank account. Tax likely won’t apply either

[fb2013]

USD floating at 217.5 today.

[Moderator]

The Biden administration unveiled a comprehensive strategy last week to move the U.S. forward and hold China back in the production of advanced semiconductors, virtually eliminating China's semi industry overnight, escalating the high-tech battle with Beijing.

“Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight,” wrote Twitter user @lidangzzz, translated by Rhodium Group analyst Jordan Schneider.

https://www.benzinga.com/government/22/10/29273679/chinas-semiconductor-industry-decapitated-overnight-what-annihilation-looks-like

[Djaymx]

How is that related to dollar rupee valuation?
Wasn't there already a chip-shortage globally? If US thinks they can strong-arm economies like china by pulling the rug from underneath them this will only make China realise possible future threats of similar nature and will not only immunize them from several other attempts but will also initiate a policy change within their ecosystems to always keep backups or simply provide home grown solutions without the American input - America loses both ways in the region and With countries like India as their Allies there future of their products like iphones, vacuum cleaners, audio systems, machine design and such will have a limited capacity, higher rate of failure et al. That comes with a relatively lazier working class.

[capsat]

Oct - Dec is the final quarter of 2022.
Dollar is slowly regaining muscle., deficit is crawling high.

foreign reserves are in doldrums while businessman & industrialists are in serious stress. Shortage of imported raw material for local productions are slowly vanishing. Letter of Credits are on hold by the Banks not releasing payment to overseas principals, under instructions of Government. Landed containers are stacking high demurrage is multiplying everyday.

Govt financial policies are like a kite flying in hurricane.

[alizain5]

I’m totally unaware of the logic of holding already imported materials/containers at port when local manufacturers already paid for. Govt never pay the damages occurring at port.

[sardarg]

there is no relief for the importers / tax payers at all.

8 containers of raw material are stuck at port since for over 38 days now. Bank have plenty of our money to take the funds and discharge the documents but they are doing hanky panky. Total demurrage has crossed 6 digit figure for 8 containers at port.

production at the plant will stop on 26.10.2022 as our warehouses are empty now. May GOD Help This Country.

[Nabs]

Pakistan still in downward spiral even with just $85 crude oil price (WTI). In 2008 it went to $150. If we adjust for dollar inflation, it is over $200 in todays money. So imagine the condition of our economy if oil goes to $200.

[pwuser150469741418]

PSEB is one hell of an incompetent institution among so many that we have. I have been trying to get in touch with them and literally all the contact numbers listed on their website, no one picks up, lol.

They did not allow me to register as a freelancer because I already have an NTN and asked me to register as a sole proprietor for which the registration fee is I am not sure but between 10-20K.

[Nabs]

Yea, I tried calling and emailing too. Then I went to their Lahore office. Waste of time! Still no certificate issued.